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Expected DA

Expected DA from Jan 2018 for CG Employees and Pensioners

Expected DA from Jan 2018 for Central Govt Employees and Pensioners

The All India Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) for July, 2017 increased by 5 points and pegged at 285. The Index increased by 1.79% between June, 2017 and July, 2017 when compared with the increase of 1.08% for the corresponding months of last year.

Dearness Allowance for CG Employees and Pensioners with effect from 1.1.2018 may be enhanced by 2% or 3% [Total DA percentage 7%(5% + 2%) or 8%(5% + 3%)]

Expected DA from Jan 2018 for CG Employees and Pensioners

Expected DA from Jan 2018 for CG Employees and Pensioners

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Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - September 12, 2017 at 11:38 am

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Expected DA from January 2018 – DA would be 3% ?

Expected DA from January 2018 –  DA would be 3% ?

We have calculated the expected DA from January 2018 with different Scenarios, but most of the calculations comes around only 3 percent increase, lets us see the scenarios here

Scenario 1

In case the AICPIN value increase by 3 point for next FIVE months (example AUG 288, SEP 291, OCT 294, NOV 297, DEC 300,), then DA would be 3% (8.81-5 =3)

Scenario 2

In case the AICPIN value increase by 3 point for next FIVE months (example AUG 289, SEP 293, OCT 297, NOV 301, DEC 305) then DA would be 4% (9.28-5 =4)

EXPECTED-da-jan-2018-AICPIN

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Expected DA from January 2018 – AICPIN for the month of July 2017, 5 Points Increased (285)

AICPIN for the month of July 2017 – 5 Points Increased (285)

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – July 2017

The All India CPI-IW for July, 2017 increased by 5 points and pegged at 285.

The Index increased by 1.79% between June, 2017 and July, 2017 when compared with the increase of 1.08% for the corresponding months of last year.

No. 5/1/2017-CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU
CLEREMONT, SHIMLA-171004

DATED: 31st August, 2017

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – July 2017

The All-India CPI-IW for July, 2017 increased by 5 points and pegged at 285 (two hundred and eighty five). In terms of monthly change, it increased by (+) 1.79 per cent between June, 2017 and July, 2017 when compared with the increase of (+) 1.08 per cent for the corresponding months of last year.

 The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (+) 3.12 percentage points to the total change. The House Rent index further accentuated the overall index by (+) 0.70 percentage points. At item level, Rice, Pure Ghee, Chillies (Green), Onion, Bitter Gourd, Brinjal, Gourd, Lady’s Finger, Palak, Parwal, Potato, Pumpkin, Tomato, Torai, Banana, Cucumber, Mango, Tea (Readymade), Bidi, Cooking Gas, Kerosene Oil, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was checked by Wheat, Arhar Dal, Masur Dal, Urd Dal, Coconut Oil, Mustard Oil, Poultry (Chicken), Coconut, Lemon, Petrol, etc., putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 1.79 per cent for July, 2017 as compared to 1.08 per cent for the previous month and 6.46 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at (-) 0.32 per cent against (-) 1.28 per cent of the previous month and 9.34 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Jamshedpur reported the maximum increase of 12 points followed by Delhi and Ranchi-Hatia (11 points each), Raniganj and Jaipur (10 points each) and Varanasi and Amritsar (9 points each). Among others, 8 points increase was observed in 2 centres, 7 points in 7 centres, 6 points in 7 centres, 5 points in 11 centres, 4 points in 10 centres, 3 points in 13 centres, 2 points in 9 centres and 1 point in 5 centres. On the contrary, Goa recorded a decrease of 1 point. Rest of the 6 centres indices remained stationary.

The indices of 34 centres are above All-India Index and 42 centres indices are below national average. The indices of Amritsar and Lucknow centres remained at par with All-India Index.

The next issue of CPI-IW for the month of August, 2017 will be released on Friday, 29th September, 2017. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureaunew.gov.in.

(SHYAM SINGH NEGI)

DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL

AICPIN-EXPECTED-DA-FROM-January-2018

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AICPIN for the month of June 2017

AICPIN for the month of June 2017

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI_IW) – June 2017

The All India CPI_IW for June, 2017 increased by two points and pegged at 280.

No.5/1/2017-CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004
DATED: 31st July, 2017

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – June, 2017

The All-India CPI-IW for June, 2017 increased by 2 points and pegged at 280 (two hundred and eighty). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by (+) 0.72 per cent between May, 2017 and June, 2017 when compared with the increase of (+) 0.73 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (+) 2.59 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Wheat, Fish Fresh, Eggs (Hen), Poultry (Chicken), Milk, Pure Ghee, Chillies Green, Onion, Brinjal, Cabbage, Cauliflower, Gourd, Green Coriander Leaves, Palak, Potato, Radish, Tomato, Torai, Coconut, Cooking Gas, Medicine (Allopathic), Toilet Soap, Tailoring Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was checked by Arhar Dal, Masur Dal, Groundnut Oil, Mustard Oil, Chillies Dry, French Beans, Electricity Charges, Petrol, Flower/Flower Garlands, etc., putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 1.08 per cent for June, 2017 as compared to 1.09 per cent for the previous month and 6.13 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at (-) 1.28 per cent against (-) 1.63 per cent of the previous month and 8.33 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Lucknow reported the maximum increase of 8 points followed by Agra (7 points) and Rajkot, Madurai, Varanasi, Quilon and Surat (6 points each). Among others, 5 points increase was observed in 8 centres, 4 points in 8 centres, 3 points in 9 centres, 2 points in 15 centres and 1 point in 13 centres. On the contrary, Darjeeling, Tripura, Belgaum, Rangapara-Tezpur and Chandigarh recorded maximum decrease of 2 points each followed by 1 point decrease in Guwahati. Rest of the 12 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 33 centres are above All-India Index and other 45 centres’ indices are below national average.

The next issue of CPI-IW for the month of July, 2017 will be released on Thursday, 31st August, 2017. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureaunew.gov.in.

(SHYAM SINGH NEGI)
DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL

expected-da-july-2017-is-over

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Expected DA July 2017 for CG Employees and Pensioners

Expected DA July 2017 for CG Employees and Pensioners

Dearness Allowance is not an attractive word among CG Employees and Pensioners nowadays, because, the hike of DA and DR is around 1 or 2 Percent only. Particularly after 7th Pay Commission, the All India Consumer Price Index is on down trend. So, employees could not expect more like 6th Pay Commission regime. Before 2016, all CG Employees and Pensioners got higher of 10% of their basic pay or basic pension as DA or DR.

At present, we have 5 months AICPIN data from Jan to May 2017 and need one more month of June 2017 to calculate the exact percentage of DA and DR with effect from July 2017.

However, there will be no chance to increase the percentage of DA and DR from One Percent. So, the total DA and DR will become only 5% from July to Dec 2017.

The below table will describe a lot…

1 = Month/Year
2 = AICPIN
3 = Total of 12 Months
4 = 12 Monthly Average
5 = DA % with Decimal
6 = DA %

expected-da-table-july-2017

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - July 4, 2017 at 11:42 am

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AICPIN for the month of May 2017 – Expected DA Almost Final!

AICPIN for the month of May 2017 – Expected DA Almost Final!

All India Consumer Price Index for the month of May 2017

The official Press Release has been released by the Labour Bureau today on its official portal, the index has increased by one point and stands at 278. Expected Dearness Allowance and Dearness Relief for Central Government Employees and Pensioners is almost decided to hike by 1 percent with effect from 1st July 2017. The total DA and DR from 1.7.2017 may be revised as 5%.

The image of the Press Release is given below for your further reference…

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Expected DA from May 2017 for Bank Employees

Expected DA for Bank Staff from May 2017

Expected DA from May 2017 for Bank Employees

Expected Calculation of Dearness Allowance as per 10th Bipartite Settlement.

Expected DA from May 2017 to July 2017 : We need three months All India Consumer Price Index data to find out  the actual increasing in DA percentage. But, at present we have two months data only. The predicted calculation given below that the CPI(IW)BY 2001=100 increasing one or two points and decreasing one or two points…

Payable for the Year Payable for the months Average CPI No. of slabs % of pay
2017 May June July ? ? ?
2017 Feb Mar Apr 6315 469 46.9 
2016-17 Nov Dec Jan 6353 478 47.8 

AICPIN at 272 for the month of March 2017

Jan-17 274 6254.30
Feb-17 274 6254.30
Mar-17 272 6208.64 6239.08 450 45.0 -19.0

AICPIN at 273 for the month of March 2017

Jan-17 274 6254.30
Feb-17 274 6254.30
Mar-17 273 6231.47 6246.69 452 45.2 -17.1

AICPIN at 274 for the month of March 2017

Jan-17 274 6254.30
Feb-17 274 6254.30
Mar-17 274 6254.30 6254.30 454 45.4 -15.2

AICPIN at 275 for the month of March 2017

Jan-17 274 6254.30
Feb-17 274 6254.30
Mar-17 275 6277.12 6261.91 455 45.5 -13.3

AICPIN at 276 for the month of March 2017

Jan-17 274 6254.30
Feb-17 274 6254.30
Mar-17 276 6299.95 6269.51 457 45.7 -11.4

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - April 21, 2017 at 10:41 am

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Expected DA: Cabinet to approve the Dearness Allowance hike soon

Expected DA: Cabinet to approve the Dearness Allowance hike soon

“The Central cabinet is likely to give its approval to a two percent Dearness Allowance hike, with effect from January 2017, to the Central Government employees.”

The cabinet is, at its next meeting, expected to give its approval to the additional Dearness Allowance of two percent to Central Government employees and pensioners, to come into effect from January 1, 2017 onwards.

The 2% Additional Dearness Allowance hike will be calculated on the basis of the basic pay as recommended by the Seventh Pay Commission, and will be given to more than 47 lakh Central Government employees and 53 lakh pensioners, of which 14 lakh employees and 18 lakh pensioners are from the defence forces.

The Dearness Allowance, issued once every six months, is given to Central Government employees and pensioners to help them manage the increase in prices of essential commodities. The Dearness Allowance is calculated on the basis of the Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers on Base Year 2001=100.

The percentage for January 2017 was arrived at by recording the prices of essential commodities at 78 towns and cities across the country, for the months of July 2016 till December 2016. Based on the data and calculation, the percentage may be fixed at 4.95 percent. But, according to the method prescribed by the Pay Commission, the decimal numbers are ignored. Hence, a Dearness Allowance of four percent will be issued with effect from January 1, 2017 onwards.

The table is given below for more information to arrive the percentage calculation.

 

M/Y CPI(IW)BY 2001=100 Total 12 Months 12 Monthly Average % Increase Over 261.42 for DA
Jul -16 280 3245 270.42 3.44
Aug – 16 278 3259 271.58 3.88
Sep – 16 277 3270 272.50 4.23
Oct – 16 278 3279 273.25 4.53
Nov – 16 277 3286 273.83 4.75
Dec – 16 275 3292 274.33 4.95

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - March 6, 2017 at 7:28 pm

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Expected DA from Jan 2017: AICPIN for December 2016

AICPIN for December 2016 – Expected DA from Jan 2017

Expected DA Jan 2017

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers on Base 2001=100

CPI(IW) Base 2001=100 Monthly Index Letter – November 2016

JANUARY 2016 269
FEBRUARY 2016 267
MARCH 2016 268
APRIL 2016 271
MAY 2016 275
JUNE 2016 277
JULY 2016 280
AUGUST 2016 278
SEPTEMBER 2016 277
OCTOBER 2016 278
NOVEMBER 2016 277
DECEMBER 2016 275

Additional DA from Jan 2017, may be about to increase 2%.

The total DA from Jan 2017 is expected to rise 4%.

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - February 2, 2017 at 10:05 am

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Expected DA from January 2017

Expected DA from January 2017

Comrades,

The whole sale price index for the month of December has risen by 3.39%, which declined in past three months, this increase is due to manufacturing price increase (oil prices has increased), the food prices had in fact has come down in December 2016 .

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was showing marginal decline from 278 points to 277 points in November 2016 , the DA stood at 4.76% as on November 2016, most likely the CPI may show increase of 1 point and may rise to 278 points in December 2016 or stay stable at 277 points.

Scenario I: If the CPI for the month of December 2016 is at 276 points(decrease on one point), the expected DA from January 2017 is likely at 2% (Total 4.97 %).

Scenario II: Even if the CPI for the month of December 2016 is at 277 points, the expected DA from January 2017 is likely at 3% (Total 5%).

Scenario III: If the CPI for the month of December 2016 is at 278 points, the expected DA from January 2017 is likely at 3% (Total 5.04 % ).

Comradely yours

(P.S.Prasad)
General Secretary

Source: http://karnatakacoc.blogspot.in/

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - January 18, 2017 at 12:06 pm

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DA from January 2017 will be 4% or 5% – Dearness Allowance Estimation

DA from January 2017 will be 4% or 5% – Dearness Allowance Estimation

DA from January 2017 will be 4% or 5% based on Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) from January 2016 to December 2016 – Net increase in DA with effect from January 2017 is estimated to be 2% or 3%

All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) for the month of November 2016 has been released by Ministry of Labour few days back.

What do we need for estimating DA from January 2017 ?

After implementation of 7th Pay Commission report, same inflation index i.e Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) with base year 2001=100, which was used for 6th Pay Commission Pay, is adopted for determining Dearness Allowance of Central Government Employees and Pensioners.

The only difference in DA calculation as far as DA from January 2016 will be, will be taking the Average of CPI-IW recorded in 2015 in the place of Average of CPI-IW recorded in 2005 which was used in 6th CPC DA calculation

Dearness Allowance payable after implementation of 7th Pay Commission = (Avg of CPI-IW for the past 12 months – Average of CPI-IW recorded in 2015)*100/(Average of CPI-IW recorded in 2015)

In order to determine DA with effect from January 2017, based on the above formula we need Consumer Price Index for the months from January 2016 to December 2016

Now that Consumer Price Index for the months from January 2016 to November 2016 is available, we have made an attempt to estimate Dearness Allowance applicable to Central Government Employees and Pensioners with effect from 1st January 2016, by assuming the possible CPI (IW) for the month of December 2016.

Month Actual AICPI-IW
Jan-2016 269
Feb-2016 267
Mar-2016 268
Apr-2016 271
May-2016 275
Jun-2016 277
Jul-2016 280
Aug-2016 278
Sep-2016 277
Oct-2016 278
Nov-2016 277
Dec-2016 Yet to be released

Estimation of DA from 1st January 2017:

Scenario 1 : No increase in AICPI (IW) in December 2016

AICPI (IW) for November 2016 is 277. If AICPI (IW) for December 2016 remains the same as November 2016, there will be additional 1% increase in DA from January 2017 which would make overall DA as 5%.

DA with effect from 1st January 2017 = [ (269+267+268+271+
275+277+280+278+
277+278+277+277)/12]-(261.4)
X100/261.4
= 5 %

Scenario 2: Decrease in AICPI (IW) in December 2016

Even if All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) decreases by 31 point and pegged at 246 in the month of December 2016, DA from January 2017 will be 4% . At the same time even for 1 point decrease in the index for December 2016 will result in lesser DA increase from January 2017 compared to Sceanrio 1 in which index is unaltered in Dec 2016.

DA with effect from 1st January 2017 = [ (269+267+268+271+
275+277+280+278+
277+278+277+246)/12]-(261.4)
X100/261.4
= 4 %
DA with effect from 1st January 2017 = [ (269+267+268+271+
275+277+280+278+
277+278+277+276)/12]-(261.4)
X100/261.4
= 4 %

Scenario 3 : Increase in AICPI (IW) in December 2016

It is very interesting to note here that, even for increase in consumer price index in the month of December up to 31 points, i.e Increase in AICPI (IW) for December 2016 to 308 points from 277 points in November 2016, DA from January 2017 will be 5% only.

DA with effect from 1st January 2017 = [ (269+267+268+271+
275+277+280+278+277+
278+277+308)/12]-(261.4)
X100/261.4
= 5 %

The other scenario that increase of more than 31 points in AICPI (IW) in the month of December 2016 for making DA with effect from January 2017 more than 5% is most unlikely.

Hence, it is more logical to conclude that DA from January 2017 will be either 4% or 5%.

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - January 3, 2017 at 6:14 pm

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NFIR assumption on DA from Jan 2017

NFIR assumption on DA from Jan 2017

 Probable DA rise w.e.f. 01-01-2017 if 277 continues 4.24% (round off to 4%)

 NFIR General Secreatry Shri M.Raghavaiah writes to its affiliates regarding the Dearness Allowance formula after 7th CPC and the expectation on next additional dearness allowance from Jan 2017.

NFIR
National Federation of Indian Railwaymen

3, Chelmsford Road, New Dlehi – 110055
No.I/5(A)/Part I

Dated: 01.11.2016

The General Secretaries of
Affiliated Unions of NFIR
Brother,

Sub: All India Consumer Price Index (IW) for the purpose of calculation of Dearness Allowance entitlement – reg.

 

The table placed below shows the year/month wise Consumer Price Index (CPI) :

DEARNESS ALLOWANCE

Dearness Allowance Formula = (Average of AICPIW for last 12 months) – 261.42 x 100 / 261.42

Year/Month wise CPI Jan Feb March April May June Average
2006 119 119 119 120 121 123
2007 127 128 127 128 129 130 126.92
2008 134 135 137 138 139 140 135.25
2009 148 148 148 150 151 153 147.92
2010 172  170  170  170 172 174 167.92
2011 188 185 185 186 187 189 183.33
2012 198 199 201 205 206 208 199.58
2013 221 223 224 226 228 231 220.67
2014 237 238 239 242 244 246 239.92
2015 254 253 254 256 258 261 254.42
2016 269 267 268 271 275 277 269.00
July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Average
124 124 125 127 127 127 122.92
132 133 133 134 134 134 130.75
143 145 146 148 148 147 141.67
160 162 163 165 168 169 157.08
178 178 179 181 182 185 175.92
193 194 197 198 199 197 191.25
212 214 215 217 218 219 209.33
235 237 238 241 243 239 232.17
252 253 253 253 253 253 246.92
263 264 266 269 270 269 261.42
280 278 277

Average for last 12 months = 272.50

Probable DA rise w.e.f. 01-01-2017 if 277 continues 4.24% (round off to 4%)

However the figures upto and inclusive December 2016 will be known during January 2017.

Yours fraternally,

sd/-

(Dr. M.Raghavaiah)

General Secretary

Source: NFIR

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - November 2, 2016 at 8:35 am

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Expected DA from Jan 2017 : AICPIN for September 2016

All India Consumer Price Index Numbers for the month of Sep, 2016 released.

The Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers Base Year 2001=100 for the month of September 2016 has been released by the Labour Bureau today through its official web portal. The index decreased by one point and stands at 277.

aicpin-sep-2016

No.5/1/2016- CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU

CLEREMONT, SHIMLA-171004
DATED: 31st October, 2016

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – September, 2016

The All-India CPI-IW for September, 2016 decreased by 1 point and stood at 277 (two hundred and seventy seven). On I-month percentage change, it decreased by (-) 0.36 per cent between August and September, 2016 when compared with the increase of(+) 0.76 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The maximum downward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (-) 1.17 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Arhar Dal, Moong Dal, Masur Dal, Urd Dal, Fish Fresh, Eggs (Hen), Poultry (Chicken), Chillies Green, Onion, Brinjal, Cabbage, Carrot, Gourd, Green Coriander Leaves, Potato, Pumpkin, Tomato, Apple, Banana, Medicine (Allopathic), etc. are responsible for the decrease in index. However, this decrease was checked by Wheat, Wheat Atta, Gram Dal, Mustard Oil, Cauliflower, Parval, Radish, Coconut, Lemon,
Tea (Readymade), Snack Saltish, Private Tuition Fee, Petrol, etc.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 4.14 per cent for September, 2016 as compared to 5.30 per cent for the previous month and 5.14 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 4.05 per cent against 6.16 per cent of the previous month and 5.71 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Belgaum, Rajkot, Mumbai and Ahmedabad reported the maximum decrease of 4 points each followed by Ludhiana, Madurai, Agra, Chennai, Warrangal, Bhilwara and Surat (3 points each). Among others, 2 points decrease was observed in 12 centres and 1 point in 18 centres. On the contrary, Angul-Talcher recorded a maximum increase of 7 points followed by Howarah and Amritsar (3 points each). Among others, 2 points increase was observed in 8′ centres and 1 point in 7 centres. Rest of the 19 centres indices remained stationary.

The indices of 33 centres are above All-India Index and other 41 centres. indices are below national average. The indices of Jabalpur, LucknQw, Pune and Bhopal centres remained at par with All-India Index.

The next issue of CPI-IW for the month of October, 2016 will be released on Wednesday, 30th November, 2016. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureaunew.gov.in.

(SHYAM SINGH NEGI)
DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL

Click here to view the Press Release

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - November 1, 2016 at 10:24 am

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2% Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employees and Pensioners due from July 2016 may approve in the Union Cabinet Meeting

2% Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employees and Pensioners due from July 2016  may approve in the Union Cabinet Meeting

Cabinet may approve 2% DA today

Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employees and Pensioners due from July 2016 is likely to be approved in the Union Cabinet Meeting to be held  today (27.10.2016).

As per the recommendations of 7th Central Pay Commission on Dearness Allowance formula, Central Government is all set to declare 2% Dearness allowance and Dearness relief to be effective from July 1, 2016.

Table of AICPIN – All India Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers BY 2001-100 from Jan 2016 to Jun 2016 are indicated in the table with average of 261.4

DEARNESS ALLOWANCE FROM JULY 2016

 Calculation of Dearness Allowance from July 2016 as shown in the table

Month / Year B.Y. 2001=100 12 Months Total 12 Months average % Increase over 261.4 DA
with Decimal
DA %
Jan-16 269 3152 262.67 1.26 0.48 0.48
Feb-16 267 3166 263.83 2.42 0.93 0.93
Mar-16 268 3180 265 3.59 1.37 1
Apr-16 271 3195 266.25 4.84 1.85 1
May-16 275 3212 267.67 6.26 2.39 2
Jun-16 277 3228 269 7.6 2.91 2

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - October 27, 2016 at 8:11 am

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DA Calculation with AICPIN: Labour Bureau released Index for August 2016

DA Calculation with AICPIN: Labour Bureau released Index for August 2016

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers on Base 2001=100

CPI(IW) Base 2001=100 Monthly Index Letter : August 2016

Month / Year CPI(IW)
JANUARY 2016 269
FEBRUARY 2016 267
MARCH 2016 268
APRIL 2016 271
MAY 2016 275
JUNE 2016 277
JULY 2016 280
AUGUST 2016 278

The All India CPI-IW for August, 2016 decreased by 2 points and pegged at 278 (two hundred and seventy eight). On 1 month percentage change, it decreased by (-) 0.71 per cent between July, 2016 and August, 2016 when compared with the increase of (+) 0.38 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

Click here for press note

Authority: http://labourbureau.nic.in/

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - October 1, 2016 at 7:30 am

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DA & Linking Factor : What is expected? : DA Announcement and linking factor explored

DA & Linking Factor  What’s expected?  DA Announcement and linking factor explored.

As you all know that DA is calculated based on AICPIN.

AICPIN is calculated based on the inflation and the cost of living in various cities. So, what’s going to happen in 7th Pay Commission, let’s read.

In Pay Commission III, the base year was used as (1960 =100).

In 4th Pay Commission, the DA was decided to pay twice a year and also for calculating the DA value the percentage increase in the 12 monthly average of All India Consumer Price Index (base 1960). Also the base year was (1982=100) as the base year.

In 5th Pay Commission, the DA was decided based on (1982=100) as the base year.

In 6th Pay Commission, the DA was decided based on (2001=100) as the base year.

In 7th Pay Commission, should we expect to have the base year as (2011=100)?

When the DA calculation change happened from base year 1982 to base year as 2001, there were a steep increase in the DA percentage, this is because the cost of living has increased multifold and also various cities and items was also included while calculating the real DA.

So, what’s been recommend in the 7th CPC Report

Keeping in mind that the present formulation of DA has worked well over the years, and there are no demands for its alteration, the Commission recommends continuance of the existing formula and methodology for calculating the Dearness Allowance.

and also check out the gazette notification changes where the linking factor has been included as on AICPIN value as 2016.

IV. Dearness Allowance

Sl.No. Recommendation of the Seventh Central Pay Commission Decision of the Chief Justice of India
1. Existing formula and methodology for calculating Dearness Allowance to continue (Para 8.17.37 of the Report) Accepted. The reference base for calculation of Dearness Allowance after coming into force of the revised Pay Structure shall undergo change accordingly and will be linked to the average index as on 01.01.2016

Though in (2001=100) the linking factor was 4.63, this lead to the calculation of DA with the average index as 115.76 as per 2005. For example, (2005 , 12 Month Average Index  536, so the linking factor as per record was 4.63).

All India and Centre-wise Linking factors between New Series of Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers on base 2001 = 100 and the previous series on base 1982=100 (General Index).

Table No. 9.01

GROUP WISE LINKING FACTORS BETWEEN CURRENT SERIES OF ALL INDIA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX NUMBERS
FOR INDUSTRIAL WORKERS ON BASE: 2001 = 100 AND THE PREVIOUS SERIES ON BASE: 1982 = 100

Group Linking Factor
I-A Food Group 4.58
I-B Pan. Supari, Tobacco & Intoxicants 6.16
II Fuel & Light 4.77
III Housing 6.18
IV Clothing. Bedding & Footwear 3.22
V Miscellaneous 4.55
GENERAL INDEX 4.63

Note: Figures on previous base 1982 = 100 can be obtained by multiplying the Index Number on current base 2001 = 100 by the linking factor and rounding off the result to the nearest whole number.

As you all now understand that the linking factor play a major role in getting the DA value, but the linking factor for year 2016 .

I was not able to find this data in Labour Bureau . We assume that if the linking factor of 2016 used, then we expect to get a higher DA percentage (assumption). This means it would be a real DA value as it would include various cities and the current inflation and CPI.

We hope that when the results are out they would be using the linking factor of 2016 as the gazette notification has this mentioned. Normally the DA announcement is release in September 1st week or 2nd week and hope this is announced shortly.

Source :  7thpaycommissionnews.com

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - September 27, 2016 at 10:34 am

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Calculation starts for expected DA from January 2017

Expected DA Calculation starts from January 2017

People started to calculate expected DA from January 2017 as 7 Months AICPIN Points are released so far. The Labor Bureau has released Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers for the Month of July 2016 today. Already It is confirmed that Dearness Allowance from July 2016 might be 2% as per the revised DA calculation.

Expected-DA-from-January-2017

Now, see the 7th CPC DA calculation Formula.

DA calculation Expected DA from July 2016 in Sixth and 7th Pay Commission

There are three main factors which determine the increase in percentage of DA in every pay Commission

1.DA calculation Formula
2.AICPIN for Industrial Workers
3. Base Average Index

1. Formula for DA calculation

Expected-DA-from-July-2016

2. AICPIN for Industrial Workers

The Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) is an important statistical/economic indicator. It was first introduced on scientific lines with base 1960=100 which was based on the results of Family Living Survey conducted in 1958-59 at 50 industrially important centres. The series was then, updated on base 1982=100 and a revision in 1999-2000 has further updated the base on 2001=100. The current series of CPI-IW with base year 2001=100 covers 78 industrially important centers spread across the country

3. Base Average Index

After neutralization of DA to revise the Pay and Allowance in Every Pay Commission, the Base Average Index will be modified taking into the account of 12 Months AICPIN points of previous year to neutralization of DA

1. From 1996 onwards, the average base Index was 306.33 (with base 1982=100)
How 306.33 was arrived?

To calculate the DA in Fifth pay commission, the 12 Month Average of AICPIN for the year 1995 was taken. The 12 months AICPIN Average of 1995 was 306.33

2. From 2006 onwards, the Avarage Base Index is 115.76 (with Base 2001 = 100)
How 115.76 was arrived…?

The Government has developed a new series with base 2001, with effect from January 2006. Back data series with base 2001 can be generated using linking factor 4.63

So the AICPIN Average of 2005 (with base 1982=100) i.e 536 had to be modified using linking factor 4.63 to adopt the new series in DA calculation. Thus the Base Index Number 115.76 was arrived

3. For 7th Pay Commission what will be the Base Index…?

As the 7th Pay commission recommendations will be implemented with effect from 1.1.2016, the AICPIN average of 2005 will be the Base Index for calculation of DA for 7th Pay Commission

So formula for Calculation of DA in 7th Pay Commission is

Expected-DA

Now expectation turned towards January 2017 DA. We need 12 Months AICPIN from January 2016 to December 2016 to calculate the expected DA from January 2017. The 7 month AICPIN Points released so far is given below.

January :269
February :267
March :268
April :271
May :275
June :277
July :280

Remaining Five months AICPIN Points from August to December are Required to calculate the rate of DA from January 2017. But assuming the trend of AICPIN Index by following three possibilities we can arrive the percentage of increase in Dearness Allowance approximately.

Assumption 1

If the AICPIN for Industrial workers remain stationary at 280 for next five months

The increase in DA from January 2017 will be 5 %

So the Total DA to be paid to CG staff from January 2017 will be 7%

Assumption II

If the CPI Index fluctuates between 282 to 278 points, even then there will be an increase of 5% DA from Jan 2017

Assumption III

If the AICPIN increases steadily by 2 points for successive months from August 2016 to December 2016

Then the DA to be paid from January will be enhanced by 6 %

So the trend of AICPIN Index if goes with above expectation, 5% to 6% increase can be expected in DA from January 2017.

Via : gservants.com

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - September 21, 2016 at 4:35 pm

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AICPIN for the month of July 2016 – 2% DA for the month of July 2016

2% DA for the month of July 2016 – AICPIN for the month of July 2016: 

No. 5/1/2016-CPI

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT

LABOUR BUREAU

CLEREMONT, SHIMLA-171004

DATED: 31st August, 2016

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) — July, 2016

The All-India CPI-IW for July, 2016 increased by 3 points and pegged at 280 (two hundred and eighty). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by (+) 1.08 per cent between June, 2016 and July, 2016 when compared with the increase of (+) 0.77 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (+) 1.65 percentage points to the total change. The House Rent index further accentuated the overall index by (+) 0.86 percentage points. At item level, Rice, Wheat, Wheat Atta, Besan, Black Gram, Gram Dal, Groundnut Oil, Eggs (Hen), Poultry (Chicken), Milk, Chillies Green, Garlic, Onion, Brinjal, Cabbage, Cauliflower, Gourd, Palak, Potato, Pumpkin, Banana, Sugar, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was checked by Fish Fresh, French Beans, Tomato, Electricity Charges, Petrol, etc. putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 6.46 per cent for July, 2016 as compared to 6.13 per cent for the previous month and 4.37 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 9.34 per cent against 8.33 per cent of the previous month and 3.21 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Bokaro reported the maximum increase of 11 points followed by Munger-Jamalpur (10 points), Giridih, Agra and Delhi (9 points each). Among others, 7 points increase was observed in 4 centres, 6 points in 10 centres, 5 points in 5 centres, 4 points in 9 centres, 3 points in 8 centres, 2 points in 8 centres and 1 point in 5 centres. On the contrary, Mysore recorded a maximum decrease of 6 points followed by Mundakkayam and Coimbatore (5 points each), and Hubli Dharwar and Emakulam (4 points each). Among others, 3 points decrease was observed in 4 centres, 2 points in 2 centres and 1 point in 5 centres. Rest of the 8 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 33 centres are above All-India Index and other 43 centres’ indices are below national average. The indices of Vishakhapathnam and Mundakkayam centres remained at par with All-India Index.

The next issue of CPI-IW for the month of August, 2016 will be released on Friday, 30th September, 2016. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureaunew.gov.in.

AICPIN-JULY-2016

EXPECTED DA CALCULATION FROM JULY 2016

DA is the most important allowance in existing Pay, if you look at the current basic DA is higher.

7th CPC Basic fixation has biggest influenced with the DA value. For this reason, after 7th Pay commission implementation, Central government staffs are looking out for how DA would be available.

In 6th CPC, everyone know how DA was calculated

In the above formula 115.76 was fixed based on the below interpretation

After implementation of Sixth Pay Commission report, Government ordered that the dearness allowance has to be calculated based on All India Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI¬IW index) with the base year 2001-100. So, DA with effect from the period 1.1.2006, has to be calculated using average Price CPI-IW index of 536 for 2005 (base 1982-100) adjusted to the base year 2001-100 by dividing the same with the Linking Factor between 1982 and 2001 Series which is 4.63. As a result, the average consumer price index (Industrial workers) for 12 months in 2005 (base 2001-100) was worked out to 115.76.To calculate Dearness Allowance with effect from Jan-06, we need the average of monthly All India Consumer Price Index (IW) with the base year

2001-100 for the preceding 12 months and apply the same in the following formula:

DA – (Average AICPI-115.76)x 100/115.76

For example, to calculate the DA for 01/01/2007, we find that the average AICPI in the year 2007 -118.95. So, D.A. as on 01/01/2007 – (118.95 – 115.76)*100 /115.76 = 2%.

In 7th CPC entire calculation can change if we use the same combination. Let’s see, how this can change?

Based on it, in 2015 (base 2001 =100) Average is 261.40 and by using the same following formula the expected (assumed) DA in 7th CPC would be (261.4-261.4)*100/261.4 = 0% and July (277-261.4)*100/261.4 = 2%

In case the base year 2011-100 is used in 7th CPC, then the linking factor will be changed to calculate the DA Value.

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - August 31, 2016 at 9:40 pm

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DA MERGER WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE BENEFICIAL THAN PAY COMMISSION

DA MERGER WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE BENEFICIAL THAN PAY COMMISSION

DA MERGER WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE BENEFICIAL THAN PAY COMMISSION – G. SAHARAJAN, SECRETARY, CGPA, KERALA

The 7th CPC submitted its report in November 2015. The Empowered Committee of Secretaries blocked it for 7 long months. Finally the cabinet approved the report without any modification, The Gazette Notification on the pay and allowances of employees was issued on 25-07-2016. The same minimum pay of Rs.18000/- The same multiplication factor of 2.57. Absolutely no change.

Let us now analyse what would have been the case, had 50% of Dearness Allowance / Dearness Relief been merged with pay / pension with effect from 01-11-2011. DA merger had taken place before implementation of 5th and 6th CPC Recommendations.

Though we had demanded it this time also, it was not agreed to. Whether enough organizational pressure was there to get the demand accepted is now an academic issue for discussion only. The DA / DR was 51% in January 2011. The percentage rates of DA/DR were 58, 65, 72, 80, 90, 100 107, 113, 119 and 125 during subsequent six monthly periods up to January 2016.

Now we shall workout the financial implication of the 50% DA/DR merger notionally. A person with a basic pay / pension of Rs. 10,000/- would have got Rs. 1,06,500/- as difference in DA/DR for the period 01-01-2011 to 31-12-2015. That is the notional loss. It is easy to workout.

For every 1,000 rupee as pay / pension, the benefit would have been Rs. 10650/- We cannot even dream of such an amount as pay revision “bonanza”. The pay + DA of the lowest paid employee who was drawing Rs. 7,000/- (5,200 +1,800). On 01-01-2016 would have been Rs. 1,8375/- In that case, no Pay Commission would have dared to recommend Rs. 18000/- as minimum pay as it would have been less than the actual pay + DA drawn by the employee. Even if we accept the 14.29% increase recommended by the 7th CPC, the minimum pay would have been Rs. 21,000/- and so the multiplication factor would have increased to 3 instead of 2.57. Employees and pensioners would have been benefitted significantly.

We were after the euphoria of a Pay Commission. We thought the CPC and the Government will deliver us good. It was a folly on our part in not clinching the demand of merger of 50% DA with effect from 01-01-2011. We shall blame ourselves for that. This is a lesson for us to be cautious in future.

Source: http://cgpakerala.blogspot.in/

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - August 4, 2016 at 9:53 am

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AICPIN for June 2016 – Calculation of DA from July 2016 is completed

No.5/1/2016- CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004
DATED: 29th July, 2016

Press Release

 

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – June, 2016

 

The All-India CPI-IW for June, 2016 increased by 2 points and pegged at 277 (two hundred and seventy seven). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by (+) 0.73 per cent between May, 2016 and June, 2016 when compared with the increase of (+) 1.16 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (+) 2.51 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Wheat, Besan, Black Gram, Gram Dal, Groundnut Oil, Eggs (Hen), Goat meat, Poultry (Chicken), Milk, Garlic, Onion, Tomato, Potato Brinjal, Cabbage, other seasonal Vegetables, Tea Leaf, Doctors’ Fee, Petrol, Repair Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was checked by Arhar Dal, Fish Fresh, Coconut, Mango (Ripe), Electricity Charges, putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 6.13 per cent for June, 2016 as compared to 6.59 per cent for the previous month and 6.10 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 8.33 per cent against 8.48 per cent of the previous month and 6.67 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Mercara reported the maximum increase of 13 points followed by Vadodara (12 points), Darjeeling and Ahmedabad (10 points each), Bhavnagar (9 points) and Nagpur (8 points). Among others, 7 points increase was observed in 2 centres, 6 points in 5 centres, 5 points in 5 centres, 4 points in 5 centres, 3 points in 12 centres, 2 points in 15 centres and I point in 14 centres. On the contrary, Quilon recorded a maximum decrease of 6 points followed by Chennai (4 points), Salem (3 points) and Coonoor (2 points). Among others, 1 point decrease was observed in 3 centres. Rest of the 7 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 34 centres are above All-India Index and other 44 centres’ indices are below national average.

The next issue of CPI-IW for the month of July, 2016 will be released on Wednesday, 31st August, 2016. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureaunew.gov.in.

(SHYAM SINGH NEGI)
DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - July 30, 2016 at 8:50 am

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