Expected DA January 2020 – Expected to increase by 4% from 17% to 21% and by 9% increase in 6th CPC DA
All India Consumer Price (Industrial Workers) Index Number [ CPI(IW) ] released by the Labor Bureau for October 2019. CPI-IW increased by 3 points to 325 (three hundred and twenty-five) for October 2019.
And with this increase in AICPIN, the Central Government Employees and Pensioners are expected to increase their Dearness Allowance Dearness Relief by 4 percent with effect from January 2020 in the 7th CPC Pay structure, thus the current 17 percent rate is projected to be 21 percent from January 2020.
On the other hand, employees who draw their salaries in the pre-revised 6th CPC pay structure will receive a 9% rise in the Dearness Allowance w.e.f. in January 2020 at 173%, which is currently 164%.
Detailed calculation of DA from January 2020 to 21% in 7th CPC & 173% in 6th CPC pay structure with AICPIN of October 2019 is provided in the table below. The calculation table shows 4 scenarios below:-
Minimum aggregate decline of 4 points from November & December 2019 ACPIN will lower the January 2020 DA / DR forecasts to 20%.
In November & December 2019, ACPIN confirms DA / DR by 21 percent in January 2020
From a cumulative rise of at least 12 points through November & December 2019, ACPIN is increasing the probability of 6th CPC January 2020 DA to 174%
A cumulative increase of at least 18 points from November & December 2019 will require ACPIN to increase DA / DR expectations from 21% to 22% from January 2020
Expected Dearness Allowance January 2020
|Expectation||Increase/ Decrease in Index||Month||Base Year 2001 = 100||Total of 12 Months||Twelve Monthly Average||% Increase Over 115.76 For 6 CPC DA||% Increase Over 261.42 For 7 CPC DA||6CPC DA announced and expected||7CPC DA announced and expected|
|Dearness Allowance/ Relief from July-2019||164%||17%|
|3||Jul,19||319||3691||307.58||165.71%||17.66%||9 points increase in last 4 months ACPIN|
|1st Scenario||-2||Nov,19||323||3775||314.58||171.75%||20.34%||4 points decrease in next two months|
|Expected DA/DR from January-2020||173%||20%|
|2nd Scenario||Nov,19||325||3777||314.75||171.90%||20.40%||No increase/ decrease in next 2 months|
|Expected DA/DR from January-2020||173%||21%|
|3rd Scenario||6||Nov,19||331||3783||315.25||172.33%||20.59%||12 points increase in next two months|
|Expected DA/DR from January-2020||174%||21%|
|4th Scenario||9||Nov,19||334||3786||315.50||172.55%||20.69%||18 points increase in next two months|
|Expected DA/DR from January-2020||175%||22%|
|7th CPC Dearness Allowance / Dearness Relief w.e.f. January 2020, from 17% to 21%, is expected to increase by 4%.|
|6th CPC Dearness Allowance / Dearness Relief w.e.f. January 2020, from 164% to 173%, is expected to increase by 9%.|
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