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Posts Tagged ‘DA from January 2017’

DA from January 2017 will be 4% or 5% – Dearness Allowance Estimation

DA from January 2017 will be 4% or 5% – Dearness Allowance Estimation

DA from January 2017 will be 4% or 5% based on Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) from January 2016 to December 2016 – Net increase in DA with effect from January 2017 is estimated to be 2% or 3%

All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) for the month of November 2016 has been released by Ministry of Labour few days back.

What do we need for estimating DA from January 2017 ?

After implementation of 7th Pay Commission report, same inflation index i.e Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) with base year 2001=100, which was used for 6th Pay Commission Pay, is adopted for determining Dearness Allowance of Central Government Employees and Pensioners.

The only difference in DA calculation as far as DA from January 2016 will be, will be taking the Average of CPI-IW recorded in 2015 in the place of Average of CPI-IW recorded in 2005 which was used in 6th CPC DA calculation

Dearness Allowance payable after implementation of 7th Pay Commission = (Avg of CPI-IW for the past 12 months – Average of CPI-IW recorded in 2015)*100/(Average of CPI-IW recorded in 2015)

In order to determine DA with effect from January 2017, based on the above formula we need Consumer Price Index for the months from January 2016 to December 2016

Now that Consumer Price Index for the months from January 2016 to November 2016 is available, we have made an attempt to estimate Dearness Allowance applicable to Central Government Employees and Pensioners with effect from 1st January 2016, by assuming the possible CPI (IW) for the month of December 2016.

Month Actual AICPI-IW
Jan-2016 269
Feb-2016 267
Mar-2016 268
Apr-2016 271
May-2016 275
Jun-2016 277
Jul-2016 280
Aug-2016 278
Sep-2016 277
Oct-2016 278
Nov-2016 277
Dec-2016 Yet to be released

Estimation of DA from 1st January 2017:

Scenario 1 : No increase in AICPI (IW) in December 2016

AICPI (IW) for November 2016 is 277. If AICPI (IW) for December 2016 remains the same as November 2016, there will be additional 1% increase in DA from January 2017 which would make overall DA as 5%.

DA with effect from 1st January 2017 = [ (269+267+268+271+
275+277+280+278+
277+278+277+277)/12]-(261.4)
X100/261.4
= 5 %

Scenario 2: Decrease in AICPI (IW) in December 2016

Even if All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) decreases by 31 point and pegged at 246 in the month of December 2016, DA from January 2017 will be 4% . At the same time even for 1 point decrease in the index for December 2016 will result in lesser DA increase from January 2017 compared to Sceanrio 1 in which index is unaltered in Dec 2016.

DA with effect from 1st January 2017 = [ (269+267+268+271+
275+277+280+278+
277+278+277+246)/12]-(261.4)
X100/261.4
= 4 %
DA with effect from 1st January 2017 = [ (269+267+268+271+
275+277+280+278+
277+278+277+276)/12]-(261.4)
X100/261.4
= 4 %

Scenario 3 : Increase in AICPI (IW) in December 2016

It is very interesting to note here that, even for increase in consumer price index in the month of December up to 31 points, i.e Increase in AICPI (IW) for December 2016 to 308 points from 277 points in November 2016, DA from January 2017 will be 5% only.

DA with effect from 1st January 2017 = [ (269+267+268+271+
275+277+280+278+277+
278+277+308)/12]-(261.4)
X100/261.4
= 5 %

The other scenario that increase of more than 31 points in AICPI (IW) in the month of December 2016 for making DA with effect from January 2017 more than 5% is most unlikely.

Hence, it is more logical to conclude that DA from January 2017 will be either 4% or 5%.

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Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - January 3, 2017 at 6:14 pm

Categories: Dearness Allowance, Expected DA   Tags: , , , , , , ,

Calculation starts for expected DA from January 2017

Expected DA Calculation starts from January 2017

People started to calculate expected DA from January 2017 as 7 Months AICPIN Points are released so far. The Labor Bureau has released Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers for the Month of July 2016 today. Already It is confirmed that Dearness Allowance from July 2016 might be 2% as per the revised DA calculation.

Expected-DA-from-January-2017

Now, see the 7th CPC DA calculation Formula.

DA calculation Expected DA from July 2016 in Sixth and 7th Pay Commission

There are three main factors which determine the increase in percentage of DA in every pay Commission

1.DA calculation Formula
2.AICPIN for Industrial Workers
3. Base Average Index

1. Formula for DA calculation

Expected-DA-from-July-2016

2. AICPIN for Industrial Workers

The Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) is an important statistical/economic indicator. It was first introduced on scientific lines with base 1960=100 which was based on the results of Family Living Survey conducted in 1958-59 at 50 industrially important centres. The series was then, updated on base 1982=100 and a revision in 1999-2000 has further updated the base on 2001=100. The current series of CPI-IW with base year 2001=100 covers 78 industrially important centers spread across the country

3. Base Average Index

After neutralization of DA to revise the Pay and Allowance in Every Pay Commission, the Base Average Index will be modified taking into the account of 12 Months AICPIN points of previous year to neutralization of DA

1. From 1996 onwards, the average base Index was 306.33 (with base 1982=100)
How 306.33 was arrived?

To calculate the DA in Fifth pay commission, the 12 Month Average of AICPIN for the year 1995 was taken. The 12 months AICPIN Average of 1995 was 306.33

2. From 2006 onwards, the Avarage Base Index is 115.76 (with Base 2001 = 100)
How 115.76 was arrived…?

The Government has developed a new series with base 2001, with effect from January 2006. Back data series with base 2001 can be generated using linking factor 4.63

So the AICPIN Average of 2005 (with base 1982=100) i.e 536 had to be modified using linking factor 4.63 to adopt the new series in DA calculation. Thus the Base Index Number 115.76 was arrived

3. For 7th Pay Commission what will be the Base Index…?

As the 7th Pay commission recommendations will be implemented with effect from 1.1.2016, the AICPIN average of 2005 will be the Base Index for calculation of DA for 7th Pay Commission

So formula for Calculation of DA in 7th Pay Commission is

Expected-DA

Now expectation turned towards January 2017 DA. We need 12 Months AICPIN from January 2016 to December 2016 to calculate the expected DA from January 2017. The 7 month AICPIN Points released so far is given below.

January :269
February :267
March :268
April :271
May :275
June :277
July :280

Remaining Five months AICPIN Points from August to December are Required to calculate the rate of DA from January 2017. But assuming the trend of AICPIN Index by following three possibilities we can arrive the percentage of increase in Dearness Allowance approximately.

Assumption 1

If the AICPIN for Industrial workers remain stationary at 280 for next five months

The increase in DA from January 2017 will be 5 %

So the Total DA to be paid to CG staff from January 2017 will be 7%

Assumption II

If the CPI Index fluctuates between 282 to 278 points, even then there will be an increase of 5% DA from Jan 2017

Assumption III

If the AICPIN increases steadily by 2 points for successive months from August 2016 to December 2016

Then the DA to be paid from January will be enhanced by 6 %

So the trend of AICPIN Index if goes with above expectation, 5% to 6% increase can be expected in DA from January 2017.

Via : gservants.com

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - September 21, 2016 at 4:35 pm

Categories: 7CPC, Dearness Allowance, Expected DA   Tags: , , , , , ,